In 2020, former President Donald Trump stood before cameras and declared his Phase One trade deal with China a "historic victory" for the American people. But years later, many are asking: Was it really a win—or a strategic failure dressed as success?

This so-called trade triumph was meant to bring jobs back home, rebalance trade, and make China play fair. Instead, it left American farmers subsidized, manufacturers uncertain, and Beijing largely unbothered.

The $200 Billion Promise That Fell Apart

“They’re going to buy $200 billion worth of our goods.” — Donald Trump, 2020

That was the promise. But by the end of 2021, China had fulfilled only around 60% of its purchasing commitments. Energy, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors were left with far less than anticipated.

And while Trump said China would be “paying billions,” the reality was far different. Tariffs were paid—by us. American importers and businesses bore the brunt of the costs, and those costs trickled down to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Farmers Got Bailed Out, Not Paid Back

To cushion the blow from China’s retaliatory tariffs, the Trump administration issued an emergency bailout of $28 billion to American farmers. That’s more than double what the auto industry received during the 2008 financial crisis.

“The trade war hurt farmers more than it helped. We were told the pain would be temporary. It wasn’t.” — Catherine Day, former USDA economist

Soybean exports fell. Small farms closed. And while some were helped by subsidies, the long-term damage was clear: the trade war didn’t heal American agriculture—it wounded it.

What Did China Really Give Up?

The Phase One deal had glaring gaps. It didn’t address:

👉China’s government subsidies

👉Intellectual property theft

👉Forced technology transfers

👉State-controlled industries

Essentially, the very problems that launched the trade war were left untouched.

“China got predictability. We got political optics.” — Derek Scissors, American Enterprise Institute

There were no meaningful penalties for China’s underperformance. And by agreeing to vague language and soft enforcement, the U.S. gave Beijing exactly what it wanted: breathing room.

Optics Over Outcomes

The deal scored well—on TV. There were ceremonial signings, confident speeches, and headlines filled with the word “win.” But for ordinary Americans?

👉Prices went up

👉Jobs stayed overseas

👉The trade deficit barely budged

In fact, by 2022, the U.S. trade deficit with China had grown again.

So… Who Really Won?

Multinational corporations may have seen short-term relief. Wall Street breathed easier. But for American workers, farmers, and small manufacturers, the deal delivered little—and solved less.

Trump may have claimed to be tough on China, but the result was a deal that left America exposed, not empowered.

Final Thoughts

The Phase One deal was less about fixing trade and more about winning a news cycle. It lacked accountability, long-term vision, and real leverage. America was promised strength but ended up with symbolism.

In the end, this wasn’t a trade victory. It was a made-for-TV illusion.

What are your thoughts on the U.S.–China trade deal?
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